Wednesday, July 29, 2009

GAMEBALL and JOKER 07/29 PIRATES at GIANTS

I like to be a little different than most things you can read on the web. I mean, why would you come here to read this if you could get the same shit 100 different places on the interweb. So while the rest of the world is focusing on what we gave up, I want to take a minute and take a look at what we got….Looking at the numbers, Freddy is hard to get a read on, He has played full time for 3 1/2 years now…. and in the past 3 1/2 years he has 1 great year and 1 not so great with 1 1/2 pretty good years including 2009. When you look at the internal numbers again, all over the place…..GB/FB ratios back and forth, pitches per PA back and forth…..his current numbers seem to be a nice fit for the average of the last 4 years, so I will start there. Everyone focuses on the high BA low OBP, but one thing I am not hearing is the doubles…..this kid looks like a doubles machine with 28 doubles already, and averaging 40 Doubles for the 3 years previous…..this gives him a wOBA of 336 which is similar to Uggla, Phillips, Barmes, Kennedy, and Felipe Lopez…..basically just about Major League Average, and basically 2x the run value the Giants have gotten out of 2nd base so far this year….. A solid upgrade for sure, and combined with Garko we should expect our horrible offense to improve….. to something like not so bad.,….so Giants fans, enjoy your brand spanking new "Not So Bad" Offense!!!

GAMEBALL and JOKER 07/29 PIRATES at GIANTS

GAMEBALL

CAIN

Far from not so bad…..Matty is a fucking OX of a pitcher (ok yehyeh, lets try it) dominating a depleted Pirates team peppering the strike zone with 4 pitches and never let a runner past second…..hosed on the win just like old times, but I don't think Cain is complaining as he has always been the consummate team guy and I see the Giants brought home the W……and Mr Cain moved past Haren and Carpenter into the NL Lead for ERA with 2.17…….already leading in W's Cain could get 2 jewels of the pitching triple crown, while Tim is running away with the Strikeout lead third Jewel…..and for those worries about his velocity….Cain was crusing building velocity as the game progressed…..topping about at 95 about 37 fastballs deep into the game, and he broke 94 MPH 10 different times, 8 of those coming in the later innings…..see graph of Fastball Velocity on bottom of write up

TIP OF THE CAP :
WILSON
Looking like a world beater for the second outing in a row…..keep it rolling, we are gonna need you if we wanna stay in the hunt…..

VELEZ
May not be the 2nd baseman of the future or even the Centerfielder…..but he might just end up as the 4th OF, backup UT infielder on a team hungry for offense…..and the way he is swinging the bat right now, the Giants need to find a place for this kid

WINN
Brought home the game winner……that’s good for something right?

JOKER

SABES

OMG WHAT IS SABES THINKING!!!..I usually like to suspend most rational thought and write with some emotion…… … I could just pile on like 95% of the interweb….. but you got that everywhere else right now ….lets take a different tack………..and actually address the question……what IS he thinking….why do the Media, Board Posters, BA and BP readers, Bloggers and basically the entire world of "know it all" baseball "outsiders" think Sabes should be taken out back and maimed……well, I have a few thoughts on this matter…….first of all, I am a baseball outsider as well, so most of this is pure conjecture…….

1) Scouting of other teams yields limited information which is likely overvalued…. The Indians are scouting the Giants, the Giants are Scouting the Pirates, the Pirates are Scouting the Mariners…..you hear this shit all the time….so what does it mean??? Well, you got some keen baseball observers trying to break down what kind of player goes with the reports and numbers they have seen…..but really how much can they see in a handful of games??? many players can look good one day and bad the next….all the scout sees it a snapshot of the player that may not be complete and does not tell you how consistent a player is….which happens to be important for a game like baseball…..just think of what Randy Winn must look like on a cold streak……or Rowand…..

2) We don't know how the Giants org valued Alderson……pretty sure the Giants knew what they had in Alderson……he is no Lincecum….he is no Cain…..he is not even a Bumgarner……the Giants have a good track record with evaluation of pitchers….and yes Liriano was the exception, but he wasn't healthy and wasn't as advanced as Alderson is now…..just 20 and you never know what he will become, but the Giants must have not thought he was THAT special……

3) We don't know how negotiation went…..Sanchez was the best 2nd baseman on the market, and the Giants and Twins were both desperate for help….the loser of this potential bidding war might be left with the scraps……who knows how this broke down…..the Pirates may have asked for Alderson, or they would continue to shop Sanchez hoping for a better offer…the mindset for the Giants could have been that Sanchez was the best fit by far…….and I may not know much about negotiation, but I do know if the match is perfect you can go over market just to make sure you get the deal done…..

4) We like Orlando Hudson……..yes, we do….one hell of a player…..but hindsight is 20/20 and we forget three things…. Hudson was coming off a serious wrist injury, the Giants didn't expect to contend and 2009 was the year to develop Frandsen or Burriss, and most importantly…..Hudson would cost us our 2009 2nd round draft pick, Thomas Joseph

5) There are other forces as work than baseball…….Deals are not made in a vacuum, the GM could be under orders from the owners to make a move to improve the team today…the season ticket base has been dwindling, the Giants have suffered losing seasons for 4 years……the added Salary could be an investment in rebuilding the season ticket base for next year…..and the commercials on TV may be a clue…."They are In It" was the tagline……

6) Infatuation with the unknown…….especially in the age where the average fan can read all they want about the Minor Leagues, and even the draft gets TV coverage, these kids are pure unspoiled commodities that have yet to disappoint us….I mean, what can a 20 year old do….if he does great, then we celebrate….if he does shitty, well he's just 20…..its a no lose proposition……what we don't see if the attrition rate for these top prospects……in our minds eye they all make the show and win the series in 2012….in reality, we are lucky if 25% of these kids make an impact……

So that’s my $0.02, yes I too am disappointed at the cost for Sanchez…..but the die is cast and its win now…so go ahead and curse Sabeans name….but.then lets go ahead and welcome Freddy, and you can still cheer for Alderson from afar…..

SMACK OF THE STICK :
FRANDSEN
Ouch, looks like you are never getting a chance to be a full timer with the Giants…..and the Pirates aren't gonna be your savior either……

RENTERIA
Ouch…the man with the slowest release in the west, has a boo boo in his arm…..and its more of a hindrance "at the plate than in the field"….could have fooled me….

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Cain's fastball velocity, only Fastballs shown

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